Research

Selected works in progress

“Why Do Parents Care So Much About Peers? Social Wellbeing, Perceived Peer Effects and School Choices”, with Paco Martorell and Matthew Wiswall.

Abstract: Why does peer composition play such a central role in the schools that parents choose for their children? Do parents view peer composition as a signal of teacher and principal quality or do they believe that peers directly shape their child’s academic attainment and social wellbeing? Understanding the source of this demand for peer composition is essential to determining whether school choice programs can deliver their intended gains. To address this question, we draw on a new survey of parental beliefs and a survey experiment linked to administrative school-choice data from an urban school district. First, we find that parents believe that peers exert a strong influence on their child’s social wellbeing, measured by safety and friendships, but a much weaker influence on academic attainment, measured by test scores and college prospects. Second, we show that parents place substantial weight on social wellbeing when choosing schools, at least as much as they place on academics. Together, these findings identify an important reason why peer composition shapes school choices: parents believe it directly shapes their child’s school experience, with the bulk of that influence operating through social wellbeing.

“Measuring residential-sorting responses to local taxes for school operational spending”, with Robert Ainsworth.

Abstract: Local taxes can fund additional school spending, and the resulting combination of higher spending and higher taxes may induce households to sort geographically. Such sorting has implications for income segregation and for interpreting estimates of school-spending effects. We estimate residential-sorting responses using a regression discontinuity design applied to California parcel-tax elections and the universe of California income-tax records. We estimate that parcel-tax passage increases operational spending by 6-7% but find little evidence of impacts on an area’s population size, resident composition, or migration flows. We conclude that any residential-sorting responses are small.

Publications

“An efficiency case for equity-based school priorities”, with Stephen Coate. Journal of Public Economics, 250, 105441 (2025).

Abstract: Many school districts operate “school choice” or “open enrollment” programs that give parents a choice of school. The popular schools in these districts are often oversubscribed, so that districts must decide which applicants receive priority at these schools. Typically, U.S. school districts give priority to students that live close to these schools or allocate by random lottery. However, other options used by a growing number of districts are priorities for disadvantaged students, which are intended to promote equity and reduce school segregation. This paper shows that, despite their effects on transportation costs, equity priorities can increase efficiency in the sense of raising aggregate welfare. They do this by facilitating better matches of students to schools.

“School quality and the return to schooling in Britain: New evidence from a large-scale compulsory schooling reform”, Journal of Public Economics, 223, 104902 (2023). Earlier version.

Abstract: What is the causal effect of schooling on subsequent labor market outcomes? In this paper I contribute evidence on this question by re-examining a British compulsory schooling reform that yields large-scale and quasi-experimental variation in schooling. First, I note that this reform was introduced in 1947, when students attended higher-track (for the “top” 20%) or lower-track (for the rest) secondary schools. The reform increased the minimum school leaving age from 14 to 15 and I show that the vast majority (over 95%) of affected students attended lower-track schools. Second, I show that the additional schooling induced by the reform had close to zero impact on a range of labor market outcomes. Third, I attribute this finding to the quality of these lower-track schools, which I argue was low along several dimensions.

“Using Goals to Motivate College Students: Theory and Evidence from Field Experiments”, with David Gill, Victoria Prowse and Mark Rush. Review of Economics and Statistics, 102(4), 648-663 (2020). Earlier version.

Abstract: Will college students who set goals work harder and perform better? We report two field experiments that involved four thousand college students. One experiment asked treated students to set goals for performance in the course; the other asked treated students to set goals for a particular task (completing online practice exams). Task-based goals had robust positive effects on the level of task completion and marginally significant positive effects on course performance. Performance-based goals had positive but small and statistically insignificant effects on course performance. A theoretical framework that builds on present bias and loss aversion helps to interpret our results.

“Peer Preferences, School Competition, and the Effects of Public School Choice”, with Levon Barseghyan and Stephen Coate. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11(4), 124-158 (2019). Earlier version.

Abstract: This paper develops a new economic model of public school choice. The key innovation is to model competition between schools in an environment in which parents have peer preferences. The analysis yields three main findings. First, peer preferences dampen schools’ incentives to exert effort in response to competitive pressure. Second, when peer preferences are sufficiently strong, choice can reduce social welfare. This is because choice is costly to exercise but aggregate peer quality is fixed. Third, given strong peer preferences, choice can reduce school quality in more affluent neighborhoods. We conclude that peer preferences weaken the case for choice.

“The Long-Run Effects of Attending an Elite School: Evidence from the United Kingdom”, with Emilia Del Bono. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8(1), 150-176 (2016).

Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of elite school attendance on long-run outcomes including completed education, income, and fertility. Our data consist of individuals born in the 1950s and educated in a UK district that assigned students to either elite or non-elite secondary schools. Using instrumental variables methods that exploit the school assignment formula, we find that elite school attendance had large impacts on completed education. Surprisingly, there are no significant effects on most labor market outcomes except for an increase in female income. By contrast, we document a large and significant negative impact on female fertility.

“The Signaling Value of a High School Diploma”, with Paco Martorell. Journal of Political Economy, 122(2), 282-318 (2014). Earlier version.

Abstract: This paper distinguishes between the human capital and signaling theories by estimating the earnings return to a high school diploma. Unlike most indicators of education (e.g., years of school), a diploma is essentially a piece of paper and, hence, itself cannot affect productivity. Any earnings return to holding a diploma must therefore reflect the diploma’s signaling value. Using regression discontinuity methods to compare workers who barely passed and failed exit exams, standardized tests that students pass to receive a diploma, we find little evidence of effects.

“The Effect of Education on Adult Mortality and Health: Evidence from Britain”, with Heather Royer. American Economic Review, 103(6), 2087-2120 (2013). Earlier version.

Abstract: There is a strong, positive, and well-documented correlation between education and health outcomes. In this paper, we attempt to understand to what extent this relationship is causal. Our approach exploits two changes to British compulsory schooling laws that generated sharp across-cohort differences in educational attainment. Using regression discontinuity methods, we find the reforms did not affect health although the reforms impacted educational attainment and wages. Our results suggest caution as to the likely health returns to educational interventions focused on increasing educational attainment among those at risk of dropping out of high school, a target of recent health policy efforts.

“The impact of tougher education standards: Evidence from Florida”, with Edward See. Economics of Education Review, 30(6), 1123-1135 (2011).

Abstract: This paper examines the effects of tougher education standards in Florida. Using variation generated by the state’s school accountability system, we study how stronger standards affect student achievement, educational attainment, and other student outcomes.

“Do Recessions Keep Students in School? The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Enrolment in Post-compulsory Education in England”, Economica, 78(311), 523-545 (2011).

Abstract: In this paper I assess the impact of youth labour market conditions on enrolment in post-compulsory education. To that end, I construct data for a panel of English regions and identify effects using variation in unemployment rates across regions and over time. My estimates suggest youth unemployment has large impacts, at least twice as large as suggested by UK-based time series data. This helps explain why growth slowed down from the mid-1990s and suggests a weakening economy could cause enrolment to increase again.

“Selective Schools and Academic Achievement”, The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 10(1) (2010).

Abstract: In this paper I consider the impact of attending a selective high school in the UK. Students are assigned to these schools on the basis of a test taken in primary school and, using data on these assignment test scores for a particular district, I exploit this rule to estimate the causal effects of selective schools on test scores, high school course taking and university enrollment. Despite the huge peer advantage enjoyed by selective school students, I show that four years of selective school attendance generates at best small effects on test scores. Selective schools do however have positive effects on course-taking and, more suggestively, university enrollment, evidence suggesting they may have important longer run impacts.

“The Performance and Competitive Effects of School Autonomy”, Journal of Political Economy, 117(4), 745-783 (2009).

Abstract: This paper studies a recent British reform that allowed public schools to opt out of local authority control and become autonomous, funded directly by the central government. Schools seeking autonomy had to propose and win a majority vote among current parents. Almost one in three voted on between 1988 and 1997. Using a regression discontinuity design, I find large achievement gains at schools that barely won compared with those that barely lost. Despite other reforms that ensured the education system was, by international standards, highly competitive, comparison across geographic neighborhoods was narrow between winners and losers, suggesting these gains did not spill over.

“Education and the Age Profile of Literacy into Adulthood”, with Elizabeth Cascio and Nora Gordon. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(3), 47-70 (2008). Earlier version.

Abstract: American teenagers perform considerably worse on international assessments of achievement than do teenagers in other high-income countries. This observation has been a source of great concern since the first international tests were administered in the 1960s. But does this skill gap persist into adulthood? We examine this question using the first international assessment of adult literacy, conducted in the 1990s. We find that, consistent with other assessments of the school-age population, U.S. teenagers perform relatively poorly, ranking behind teenagers in the twelve other rich countries surveyed. However, by their late twenties, Americans compare much more favorably to their counterparts abroad: U.S. adults aged 26-30 assessed at the same time using the same test ranked seventh in the same group of countries, and the gap with countries still ahead was much diminished. The historical advantage that the United States has enjoyed in college graduation appears to be an important reason why, between the teen years and the late twenties, American literacy rates appear to catch up with those in other high-income countries. The educational systems of countries with high university graduation rates appear to share two features: comprehensive secondary schools, in which all students have the option of taking courses to prepare for university, and a highly accessible university sector. For most of the twentieth century, the United States led the developed world in participation and completion of higher education. In recent years, however, other high-income countries have substantially expanded access to university education. These changes should have striking consequences for the distribution of skill across countries in the years to come.