Selected works in progress 

“An Efficiency Case for Equity-Based School Priorities”, with Steve Coate.

Abstract: Many school districts operate “school choice” or “open enrollment” programs that give parents a choice of school. The popular schools in these districts are often oversubscribed, such that districts must decide which applicants receive priority at these schools. Typically, U.S. school districts give priority to students that live close to these schools or allocate by random lottery. However, another option used by a growing number of districts are priorities for disadvantaged students, which are intended to promote equity and reduce school segregation. This paper shows that, despite their effects on transportation costs, equity priorities can increase efficiency in the sense of raising aggregate welfare. They do this by facilitating better matches of students to schools.

“How Do Parents Choose Schools? Evidence from Choices Linked to Surveys of Choosers”, with Paco Martorell and Matt Wiswall.

Published papers (click “CV” link for details of other writing)

“School Quality and the Return to Schooling in Britain: New Evidence from a Large-Scale Compulsory Schooling Reform” (forthcoming, Journal of Public Economics). Earlier version: NBER Working Paper.

Abstract: What is the causal effect of schooling on subsequent labor market outcomes? In this paper I contribute evidence on this question by re-examining a British compulsory schooling reform that yields large-scale and quasi-experimental variation in schooling. First, I note that this reform was introduced in 1947, when British students attended higher-track (for the “top” 20%) or lower-track (for the rest) secondary schools. The reform increased the minimum school leaving age from 14 to 15 and I show that the vast majority (over 95%) of affected students attended lower-track schools. Second, I show that the additional schooling induced by the reform had close to zero impact on a range of labor market outcomes. Third, I attribute this finding to the quality of these lower-track schools, which I argue was low along several dimensions.

“The Signaling Value of a High School Diploma“, with Paco Martorell.
Journal of Political Economy, 122(2) 282-318, April 2014. Earlier version: Princeton IRS Working Paper

Abstract: This paper distinguishes between the human capital and signaling the- ories by estimating the earnings return to a high school diploma. Unlike most indicators of education (e.g., a year of school), a diploma is essentially a piece of paper and, hence, by itself cannot affect productivity. Any earnings return to holding a diploma must therefore reflect the diploma’s signaling value. Using regression discontinuity methods to compare the earnings of workers who barely passed and barely failed high school exit exams—standardized tests that students must pass to earn a high school diploma—we find little evidence of diploma signaling effects.

“The Effect of Education on Adult Mortality and Health: Evidence from Britain“, with Heather Royer.
American Economic Review, 103(6), 2087-2120, October 2013. Earlier version: NBER Working Paper

Abstract: There is a strong, positive, and well-documented correlation between education and health outcomes. In this paper, we attempt to understand to what extent this relationship is causal. Our approach exploits two changes to British compulsory schooling laws that generated sharp across-cohort differences in educational attainment. Using regression discontinuity methods, we find the reforms did not affect health although the reforms impacted educational attainment and wages. Our results suggest caution as to the likely health returns to educational interventions focused on increasing educational attainment among those at risk of dropping out of high school, a target of recent health policy efforts.

“The Impacts of Tougher Education Standards: Evidence from Florida“, with Edward See.
Economics of Education Review, 30(6), 1123-1135, December 2011

Abstract: Many of the policies that fall under the school accountability umbrella are designed to incentivize students. Prominent among these are high school exit exams, standardized tests that, in some states, students must pass to earn a high school diploma. Proponents of these tests argue that by incentivizing students, they induce them to work harder and, therefore, improve their high school performance and, perhaps, longer-run outcomes; some of these proponents argue that these exams would be even more helpful if they were set at a higher standard. Critics worry that these exams prevent some students from graduating and cause others to dropout; they contend that these effects are worse if standards are higher. In this paper we investigate the impacts of an increase in the exit exam standard in Florida. Using difference-in-difference methods, we show that this had few of the negative effects claimed by critics. We cannot detect any positive effects of the higher standard, although such effects may be too small to be picked up with our data.

“Do Recessions Keep Students in School? The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Enrolment in Post-Compulsory Education in England“
Economica, 78 (311), 523-545, July 2011.

Abstract: In this paper I assess the impact of the youth labour market on enrolment in post-compulsory education. To that end, I construct data for a panel of English regions and identify youth labour market effects using variation in youth unemployment rates across regions and over time. My estimates suggest that the youth labour market has large enrolment impacts, at least twice as large as suggested by UK estimates based on time series data. This helps to explain why enrolment growth slowed down from the mid-1990s and suggests that a weakening youth labour market could cause enrolment to increase again.

“Selective Schools and Academic Achievement“
B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, Vol. 10: Iss. 1 (Advances), Article 9, 2010.

Abstract: In this paper I consider the impact of attending a selective high school in the UK. Students are assigned to these schools on the basis of a test taken in primary school and, using data on these assignment test scores for a particular district, I exploit this rule to estimate the causal effects of selective schools on test scores, high school course taking and university enrollment. Despite the huge peer advantage enjoyed by selective school students, I show that four years of selective school attendance generates at best small effects on test scores. Selective schools do however have positive effects on course-taking and, more suggestively, university enrollment, evidence suggesting they may have important longer run impacts.

“The Performance and Competitive Effects of School Autonomy“
Journal of Political Economy, 117(4), 745-783, August 2009.

Abstract: This paper studies a recent British reform that allowed public high schools to opt out of local authority control and become autonomous schools funded directly by the central government. Schools seeking autonomy had only to propose and win a majority vote among current parents. Almost one in three high schools voted on autonomy between 1988 and 1997, and using a version of the regression discontinuity design, I find large achievement gains at schools in which where the vote barely won compared to schools in which where it barely lost. Despite other reforms that ensured that the British education system was, by international standards, highly competitive, a comparison of schools in the geographic neighborhoods of narrow vote winners and narrow vote losers suggests that these gains did not spill over.

“Reading, Writing, and the Rankings of Rich Nations: Education and the Age Profile of Literacy into Adulthood“, with Elizabeth Cascio and Nora Gordon.
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(3), 47-70, Summer 2008. Earlier version: NBER Working Paper